Bill IngramBill Ingram Email Print 0

There are a flurry of questions in the minds of NBA fans in the wake of Saturday night’s blockbuster trade between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Did the Thunder take a step back? Is Houston a playoff team now? Did the Rockets give up too much? Did Oklahoma City get the best deal possible?

I spent a good deal of the morning answering those questions to one degree or another in my chat, so be sure you’ve read that.

There’s another question, however, that would seem to overshadow the others: Is James Harden truly a maximum contract type of player? That, after all, is the reason he was traded. The Thunder did not believe him to be a max player, while the Houston Rockets, with less to lose, were willing to make that kind of commitment.

By now, most NBA fans are familiar with the concept of Money Ball, which was made famous to casual sports fans by the movie of the same name. It’s also no secret to most NBA fans that general managers like OKC’s Sam Presti and Houston’s Daryl Morey are disciples of the statistical side of player analysis. The question we should be asking, then, is how far do we have to dig into the mountain of stats to find something that makes Harden look like a max player?

We start at the top, his basic stats that everyone understands. No, not his 13.5 points per game and his 28.6 percent shooting in the preseason. Preseason action is not a particularly good gauge for veteran players. We’ll also throw out his dismal NBA Finals run last season, in which he failed to score in double figures in three of his team’s five games. Overall, he is a player who has improved across the board in each of his three seasons, and averaged 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last year for the Thunder. He also shot 49 percent from the field, 39 percent from three and 85 percent from the foul line – all career bests. Those aren’t exactly Kobe Bryant or even Joe Johnson numbers, but they are solid, and they earned him the league’s Sixth Man of the Year award. Still, a max contract is not due a player with Harden’s stat line.

Many NBA fans know to go at least one level deeper when looking at stats, taking into account a player’s PER, or Player Efficiency Rating. Even there, however, Harden ranks just 30th in the NBA, and there are a lot of players who ranked above him who are not close to being max contract players. Nope, we have to keep digging.

Taking a look at each NBA players’ “True Shooting Percentage,” which takes into account field goals, free throws and three-point shots, we start to find a little more value in Harden. Last season he ranked fourth in the NBA, trailing only Tyson Chandler, Steve Novak and Manu Ginobili with a .660 TSP. The next chart down is number of wins added, where Harden (10.0) ranks third among shooting guards behind Dwyane Wade (12.8) and Kobe Bryant (12.7). Now we’re starting to see why Houston thinks Harden has a great deal more upside than he has shown in his first three seasons.

What does all of that mean? In a nutshell, Harden scored 66 percent of the time when he shot the ball last season, and he was in a reserve role in all but two of his games. The Rockets would like to project that out and see if he can score at a similar clip when he’s playing 10 more minutes and getting, perhaps, 10 more shots per game. In short, Houston hopes that the numbers hold and Harden rises to become the best shooting guard in the NBA this season, eclipsing Bryant and Wade.

Of course, there is a bigger question facing Rockets owner Les Alexander, who is set to pay $70 million for Harden, and will shell out roughly $13.6 million apiece for Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik three years out. Can a team built around Harden, Lin and Asik compete for a championship? And if not, isn’t that a lot of money to spend on a team that, on paper, is not currently a playoff team? Also, while Morey and his staff look at the cap hit, which is roughly $8.3 million per season for three seasons for Lin and Asik, the checks they will cash in three years will be that $13.6 million number.

That’s going to be a couple of awfully tough checks to write for an owner whose team is not close to being in the mix of Western Conference contenders.

Patrick Patterson Wants To Start

In the NBA, the offseason is very often a time of change. Most teams keep their core together, making tweaks here and there. Some teams make huge, roster-shattering trades. Few teams, however, make the sweeping changes that we’ve seen from the Houston Rockets heading into the 2012-13 NBA season. One of the few returning Rockets is forward Patrick Patterson, and he tells HOOPSWORLD that getting names and faces down has been a challenge from the start of training camp.

“Early on, that’s basically the toughest part, who and what you’re supposed to do,” Patterson said. “This team has so many new faces, everyone is pretty much hungry and they’re determined to try and get as much playing time as possible, so it seems like a battle almost every single day. We got some great talents on this team, we got some great youth on this team and we can utilize that while on the court. So as far as names go, we pretty much knew everybody within a week, so that part was handled. But as far as on the court and working out, trying to utilize our strengths, personal development and player development, we work on that every single day and so far it’s good.”

It’s been especially tough for Patterson, since the Rockets added quite a few players at his position as they were trying to collect assets for a potential Dwight Howard trade. Donatas Motiejunas has joined the team, and Terrence Jones, Royce White and Marcus Morris are all considered power forwards (at least part of the time) by the Rockets’ coaching staff. As of today, they are all still on the team. Patterson likes the competition, but believes he should be the starter on opening night.

“Yeah, you always want to play alongside the best people that you can as a team,” Patterson said. “We’ve got a lot of competition at the four, we’ve got a lot of fours. We have a lot of people who can pretty much play on the court, a lot of guys who can use their skills to help this team out in anyway possible. For me, personally, I want to be the starting four, so I’m going to do whatever it takes in order for that to happen. So I’ve got to work hard everyday in practice, be the first one here and the last one to leave, and just show the coaches that I deserve it.”

With so many changes, it’s hard for Patterson to choose one new teammate who is the most surprising.

“Probably all of them, I just can’t say one,” Patterson said. “Jeremy Lamb (who was traded to Oklahoma City in the Kevin Martin/James Harden deal), from watching him when he was at UCONN, seeing the type of scorer he was, but he can also play defense, too. He didn’t really get praised for his defense in college, he was more of a scorer, but coming here he’s pretty good at it. He can use his length and he can use his quickness on the court. Royce, he’s basically a big man that’s a point guard all in one, I’ve been extremely impressed with his play. Terrence Jones, I’ve been following him since he was at Kentucky. I’m well-aware of his game and him as a person and playing beside him. The list goes on and on, these guys seem to contribute to this team in one way or another and it’s going to make us better.”

Normally, even the teams that make major changes have one or two veterans to lean on as the new identity starts to set in. The Rockets don’t have that advantage. Kevin Martin was expected to wear the label, but he’s now playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook a little further north.

“We don’t just have one person, we have to come together as a team,” says Patterson. “We lost all that, pretty much, veteran experience. We do have … Omer (Asik), same with Shaun Livingston … and Tony

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Alex KennedyAlex Kennedy Email Print 0

Over the past four months, NBA executives have been working the phones and trading players left and right. There are a decent amount of trades every offseason, but this summer was particularly chaotic. Since June, there have been 31 trades involving 96 players. Twenty-nine teams completed at least one trade, ranging from minor swaps to blockbuster deals, with the San Antonio Spurs finishing the summer as the only franchise that didn’t make a move (but not for lack of trying, especially on draft night).

All-Stars such as Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Steve Nash, Andre Iguodala and Joe Johnson were dealt. Notable players like James Harden, Kyle Lowry, Ryan Anderson, Kevin Martin, Arron Afflalo, Mo Williams, Marvin Williams, Darren Collison, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, Raymond Felton, Lamar Odom, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, Corey Maggette, Courtney Lee and Jason Richardson changed scenery as well.

Even after such a busy summer, the rumor mill continues to churn. Around the league, there are a number of players who find themselves on the block because they don’t fit into their team’s long-term plan for one reason or another. Some are veterans who are stuck on a rebuilding team, some are impending free agents who will likely be out of their team’s price range and some are starting-caliber players who are redundant because they’re on a deep team that has a logjam at their position.

Here are some players who could be dealt prior to the trade deadline on February 21:

Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks

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Coach Anthony Macri writes the weekly Coach’s Notebook column for HOOPSWORLD and is the CEO of the ASEAN Basketball League, the first regional professional sports league in Southeast Asia. Coach Macri gets started at his new time of 10am EST every Tuesday.

LA in LA

Coach, tell me how some people can that this Harden trade wasn’t a short term set back for OKC? They traded Harden (who can shoot, plays average D and isn’t a liability, great playmaker, great penetrator, draws fouls) for Martin (great shooter, draws fouls, abysmal D, doesn’t rebound as well, doesn’t really pass, injury prone) and most of those apply to Lamb with addition of having low motor.
Obviously Lamb can outgrow his flaws but for this year I don’t see how exporting scoring, average D, and playmaking for only scoring (short term) equals not taking a step back.

Anthony Macri

Happy Tuesday everybody! I assume that since you’re reading this, you have power. That’s always good. My family back in Virginia is ok, but my parents in NJ are struggling without power or phones. Hoping they get restored in time for the games tonight! It’s finally here – I’m really excited about this season and hope you are too. Lots to talk about, let’s get to it.

Before I answer this question, I must make an announcement of potential bias: Kevin Martin is a friend and longtime client of Coach Thorpe and I have had a lot of interactions and court time with him. I have also helped in whatever meager way I could as he improved his game. With that said, I think many folks are underestimating how completely impossible that team will be to guard, with two of the most efficient wings playing opposite one another. The two Kevins both can shoot from deep, get to the line a ton, and don’t need to constantly possess the ball to be effective. I also think people exaggerate how poor Kevin Martin is on the defensive end vis-a-vis this trade. First of all, having better defenders behind him makes a ton of difference, and secondly, it’s not like Harden is world class anyway. I don’t think it’s as big a step down as you seem to, and I think when you compare how good this team is now vs. how good you thought they were before the trade, does their comparison to LA or San Antonio really change all that much? To me they might be a little worse or about the same, and that won’t make too much of a difference in how they will fare against the top teams in the league.

LA in LA

Also how do you imagine Harden and Lin getting along since both are more effective with the ball?

Anthony Macri

Harden’s presence as a playmaker and more nuanced feel for the game flow will allow Lin to do what he does best: score in the Tony Parker style. I expect Harden to become a bit like Manu in that he can facilitate offense from the wing or the top, handle the ball as necessary, and make it so Tony Parker (Lin) doesn’t have to worry about doing everything else plus score. Imagine Lin set up from the left wing, coming off a ball screen toward the middle, and Harden lifting on the left side and receiving a kickout to drive again toward the middle. I have a good feeling they’ll find a way.

Cain

How about a trade of Granger and Hansbrough to Houston for Parsons, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris?

Anthony Macri

Why would Indiana do that?

mojart

who do you prefer as your starting shooting guard a healthy eric gordon or james harden (both will play the 82 games schedule) and why?thanks

Anthony Macri

Personally I take Harden for two major reasons. First, I love his feel for the game and the way he utilizes change of speed and just incredible intelligence to make things happen. He is a guy who can lose some of his explosiveness and he can still be extremely effective because of all his nuanced understanding. Secondly, I am a big fan of lefties to really mess with defenders. When all else is equal, I will take lefties a lot of the time.

Aristotle

Hey Coach, so what happens to the games like NY v Brooklyn with the storm that’s occurred? Played on another night or does the season start later or do games get missed till the clean up happens?
Good opportunity to get both teams together and do a charity thing too.

Anthony Macri

I’m sure they won’t make too many decisions on changing game venues / location / dates until after they’ve had a chance to assess the damage and figure out if fans will be able to attend based on prevailing conditions. If they are going to make any changes, I wouldn’t expect an announcement until after around noon today EST.

Alex

I had a quick fantasy question. Should I drop Dirk for Al Horford? He is listed as PF/C and my other big men on my team are Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, and Josh Smith.

Anthony Macri

I don’t have any fantasy hoops experience, sorry. I do love Al Horford and I tend to think he will have lots of opportunities this year. Where statistically does your team need the most help, given that is your frontcourt?

The Philippine Eagle

Hi Coach, why are there lots of talented players in the United States than in any other parts of the world? What are yours basketball secrets that makes your players the best internationally? Thanks!

Anthony Macri

We have been playing the game longer, and there is a very rich and comprehensive basketball development infrastructure in the US. Kids start playing at a very young age, and the competition can become very fierce pretty early. That process tends to take a little of the joy out of the game, but it leaves you with some excellent players. I look at a young Filipino like June Mar Fajardo and I think that is a guy who in the US would have received top notch instruction and no shortage in worthwhile competition, and he’d be a high DI player and potentially an NBA pro. As it stands, he’ll probably have a solid maybe even strong PBA career, but not anywhere near the NBA.

Zack Diaz

Good Day Mr. Macri,

Do you think Pat Riley will ever consider trading Lebron James for two Top 15 level talent in the NBA or even two Top 10 level talent? To give you some perspective, according to ESPN’s NBA rank, here are players 2-15.

15. Pau Gasol
14. Blake Griffin
13. Andrew Bynum
12. Rajon Rondo
11. Dirk Nowitzki
10. Deron Williams
09. Russel Westbrook
08. Dwyane Wade (Not qualified)
07. Kevin Love
06. Kobe Bryant
05. Derrick Rose
04. Chris Paul
03. Dwight Howard
02. Kevin Durant

What do you think Lebron James worth is to other GMs?

I know the only possible teams that could do that kind of trade is Lakers, Clippers, and Thunder. But let’s say that wasn’t the case. What is Lebron worth in terms of a trade deal?

Anthony Macri

I can’t imagine anyone giving me a deal where I think it’s a no-brainer. LeBron is almost irreplaceable, both as a talent and as a business entity. If you force me to narrow it down, one way I’d do it is to say the two players could not equal more than a 13 if you combine their above ranked values. So, some trades I’d consider for LeBron would include (2) Kevin Durant & (10) Deron Williams – total 12, or Kevin Love (7) and Derrick Rose (5) – total 12. Does that make sense? If you have your own theories about the above, share it in the comments section below.

Jason M.

What are your thought on Motiejunas? Will he eventually be an above-average starter or simply a strong bench player?

Anthony Macri

I think he can turn into a solid to good starter on a Playoff-caliber team. It may take him some time to adjust to the speed, explosiveness, and the overall athleticism of the game in the US, but there is no reason to think he won’t. Folks who I have talked to think he’s going to be good with seasoning, and I trust their judgment.

Jason M.

Same question for two different rookies. What is the pro ceiling for Will Barton and Draymond Green? These are two of the guys I see as draft steals.

Anthony Macri

I am not as familiar with Draymond Green, so I won’t talk about him too much, but I am a huge Will Barton fan. Will has length and explosive ability that scouts dream about. He seems to have worked on his mentality and decision-making, which were two really big hurdles coming into last year. The real test for Will Barton this early in an NBA season is whether or not he can be impactful in extremely limited minutes (e.g., does he respond well when taken out? Does he help his teammates even in games where he doesn’t play?).

Peter

Hey Coach! Are you gonna wear a fake beard and pretend to be James Harden for Halloween

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